Thursday, May 21, 2009

My quick assessment of Keynes

He did well, but was not in a position to complete his theory. The economy of the time was in long term Malthusian expansion, so the best approximations were based on exogenous shocks. Until the macro system shows the shows global constraints, the data will not be clear enough to show coherence between micro and macro models. Chris Rohmer's paper on the stimulus effects of gold flows from Europe to America i eh 1930s had to be treated as exogenous because feed back effects were longer term than our outlook, and unobservable.

Keynes must have known this and animal spirits was an approximate heuristic that got us past the dearth of data. By singling out government, the largest monopoly in national economies, Keynes could approximately fill the gap in needed to model national coherence.

In 1928, the consumer could assume a infinite dimensional system, finding investment opportunity globally under the assumption of unlimited outward flows of technology. By 1990, the use of technology transplanted to developing economies synchronized with developed economies in a time period within the normal planning outlook. Our models had to accept finite dimensionality in the yield curve.

Bottom line:
A closed endogeneous model under constant measurement uncertainty has the following characteristics.

1) The money good will always have a visible term structure

2) Money will be defined by a unique and finite set of eigenfunctions defining the yield curve, the placement of functions differ by multiple of the measurement uncertainty.

3) Regardless of asymmetric information or relatively different estimation of elasticity distribution, the term structures of all other goods become a linear combination of the money functions, with a single solution. And agents will converge on that unique estimate of the term structure of the good, though they could occupy differing sets of the finite set of eigenfunctions.

4) If the unique solution in 3 is inverted, then a partial restructuring must occur.

5) The depth of the restructuring should be determined by the point in which the money yield curve inverts.

6) At the micro level, each transactions takes place over finite time and causes a series of adjustments to the agents balance sheet, equivalent to an eigenvalue decomposition of the traded, single good.

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