Monday, September 21, 2009

What economic school can explain asymmetry?

US Unemployment

The chart above is the unemployment over two recent recessions. Why does the chart show asymmetry? Krugman has a hard time explaining it, except by panic. DeLong cannot solve it. It does not appear in the efficient market hypothesis.

The Austrian school can explain it, partially. Thoma has no clue. Kling gets it with recalculation, but he is an expanded Austrian. The Austrians were close, but it is more than the finance industry that is asymmetric, is is all industries.

If an economist can't solve the asymmetry problem then they have no business recommending cures.

Update:

Always read the LGL blog for sensible interpretation.

Also read Mankiw's review of the Keynes bio from Mr. Skidelsky, in which Mankiw hits the asymmetry nail on the head:

"But if recessions and depressions are as costly as they seem to be, why don't firms have sufficient incentive to adjust wages and prices quickly, to restore equilibrium? This is a classic question of macroeconomics that, despite much hard work, is yet to be fully resolved."

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