Thursday, December 3, 2009

What you need to know about Climategate

The fundamental we are dealing with is that the earth is in the Holocene period, has been for 12,000 years or so. That is the hottest period in the glacial cycle, but the length of the Holocene may be abnormal, and related to biosphere effects, a change in CO2 some 12,000 years ago. We are at the change over period in the glacial cycle. That period is generally very rapid, a collapse in temperature, meaning it is a tipping point to rapid cool down.

With the CO2, then, where do we tip? Dunno, really, because we have never dwelled the top of the glacial cycle with so much CO2, not in a million years. I can think of scenarios and minimizing constraints that might put us back to ice ball. The danger is precisely because we are doing this at the top of the hottest period, why? Is there some natural reason? If so, on what basis says that the ratio of tipping points go in one or the other? Did we do anything 12,000 year ago, what are we doing now, and what was evolution's intent regarding our relationship to the glacial cycle?

But, bottom line, the mix of CO2 with the tipping point combined with the length of Holocene will cause unexpected events.

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