Sunday, January 17, 2010

Old predictions from 2004 and later

In 2004, I was trying to get a property sold ASAP because the housing market was about to collapse. Here are some other quotes from 2004:

The normally circumspect former Treasury Secretary [Robert Rubin] is accusing Congress and the Bush administration of creating "truly horrendous fiscal conditions" that, left unchecked, will lead to higher interest rates, fewer jobs and a lower standard of living. "We face the high probability of a very serious day of reckoning," Rubin told a friendly (Democratic-leaning) crowd at New York City's 92nd Street Y in November.

And PIMCO's Bill Gross:

"We're trying to do too much, borrow too much, spend too much," Gross wrote in a September commentary. "We are a country in the beginning stages of what can be aptly described as hegemonic decay."

Frpm the same article:

Three out of four U.S. investors believe that the federal budget deficit is hurting the investment climate, according to a recent Gallup poll.

Her Gross talks about our favorite Communist, lil Bush:

Gross maintains that the reason the dollar is now falling is because foreign creditors prefer bonds of countries with "budgetary disciplines resembling that of an adult as opposed to a neurotic teenager with a credit card." He contends that the only reason there hasn't been an economic crisis is that China and the other Asian countries with which we're running huge trade deficits are using our dollars to buy Treasuries.

Ben in 2006:
This adverse effect of budget deficits on economic growth is probably the most important cost of deficits, and a major reason why economists advise governments to minimize their deficits.

Here is Mankiw, then working for the Communist explaining short term fiscal stimulus in 2003:

He added that Bush had chosen to place more emphasis in the short term on creating jobs and that in the medium term he aimed to bring the deficit down with higher growth and by restraining government spending.


Here is a liar, the former Bush director of the budget in early 2008:

Mr. Portman called the country's fiscal health "relatively strong" and said the president has left a solid base for "the next president and the next Congress to deal with the real problem, which is the unsustainable growth in mandatory spending."

And:

"Ronald Reagan proved that deficits don't matter," snapped Vice President Richard Cheney to about-to-be-fired Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill a little over a year ago."

Note, many of these quotes are coming from DeLong, the master deficit hawk in the run-up.

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