Wednesday, January 20, 2010

This thing with credit.

What makes finance different as a production line? It has the least asymmetry, and fastest adaption times. Households save and borrow. So retail credit, cash, will average average retail inventories, across a heterogeneous agents. Makes a great measuring tool.

So, the credit system is viewed by the agent, its great utility, as a random walk, constant mean. It makes accounting and predictions simple. But the bankers yield curve as Gaussian white, attempts an average of heterogeneous inventories of log normals, which can be considered as a log normally shaped production line.

Reals goods tend to log normal, as production lines, as they become more asymmetric.

But, credit still has traces of asymmetry. The trace left is equal to the price we won't pay for accuracy. Right now, retail inventories are dropping and short term rates down. Potential higher yields, and high inventory growth at the ten year term. So, in a sense, credit inventory is backing up, as are real goods. Hence credit wasn't Gaussian white, mean zero, for a year or so, mainly because of supply chain interference in real goods.

So, when things are stable, everyone, everywhere can adjust their inventories to interest rates.

Wouldn't QM say that the variance of money to its mean is fixed by nature.

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