Saturday, February 6, 2010

Oil breaks a support level downward

Says the teaser from a gated WSJ article:

(Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures fell sharply for the second day in a row Friday after breaking through a key support level that traders had been watching for a sign of whether the energy markets would continue to trend lower. The drop in crude prices spurred losses for other commodities, which worsened as the U.S. dollar gained strength.

Crude futures, which had been little changed throughout the morning after the release of anxiously awaited U.S. jobs data, fell below their January low of $72.43, which triggered further selling that pushed the benchmark March contract below $70 for the first time since ...

Imported oil, as a percent of consumer expenses is growing toward the 6% mark. But, the economy is tuning to that problem. This is our third go around since mid 2007, and the consumer is getting better at it. Each time gas hits that magic point, some large chunk of consumer redeploys the household in a deflated state, discounting the personal auto. They are aided by increasing information technology. Transportation needs to be planned farther out in time and space, it is constrained.

The new technology consumer increasingly commercializes personal freight. This is different than from the previous oil shocks fro the 1970s, in which engine and transmission changes did the trick. In the same way that the telegraph drove the development of railroad, these consumers push technology into transportation. As the technology invades transportation, efficiency soars because transportation and information are matched.

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