Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Has Fed research debunked the housing theory?

Mark Thoma points us to this research:
The U.S. still is feeling the effects of widespread housing bust, but a new report serves as a reminder that large swaths of the nation didn’t experience a boom in home prices and hasn’t suffered from the bust.
We are rapidly eliminating the various suspects in the crash of 2008. Dean Baker and housing boom seems to be ruled out.

The stimulus multipliers are too low for Galbraith and 'Government too Small' culprit.

The coincidence of technology and cycles is eliminating the Austrian 'rates too low for too long' theory.

I see no one except Yglesias and Pelosi are pointing to the sudden shortage of medical services as the culprit.

Krugman has pointed out the wide variance in debt levels and makes a good case against the too much debt culprit.

The Schumpeter creative destruction theory does not have enough detail to be useful.

The volatility of money itself, the Scott Sumner theory, implies nothing more than discomfort on the part of bankers and savers.

Any other candidates? The Hamilton energy shortage works, but needs a cause. Why did we suddenly discover energy shortages when we have been talking about them for years?

There still remains the Asian savings glut theory, but that seems to be confused with the American over consumption theory.

What are we left with? The continuing information revolution and its affect on our need to equalize to a biological constant of uncertainty, and a resulting Quantum Mechanical theory of economics, my theory. A specific form of the Recalculation Theory. Another metaphor for my theory is the we seek our constant level of incompetence.

What can I say? I suggest we give me credit and call this the Mini Depression, rather than the Great Recession.

No comments: