Friday, March 19, 2010

Why is state revenue continuing to decline?

Tax Foundation has the latest numbers on budget shortfalls in the Hoovers.

For one thing the stimulus multiplier is below one, closer to 1/2. Hence, the economy overall is about 2% below baseline as the stimulus passes through soaking up slack resources. The resulting slack in GDP subtracts from state revenue.

The problem is especially severe because local planning is especially effected by stimulus plans as states mistakenly assume that federal grants will lower their costs. Wrong, the stimulus is likely crowding out state and local spending, adding to the overall costs more than value of the stimulus grants.

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