Thursday, May 27, 2010

Oil back at $75

In that range.
Our stock market is a calculator, it calculates the value of equities when oil prices are within the tolerance window. The systems works like this: Oil below $70, the US can grow on that. Buy equities, buy oil futures until oil is near $70, then wait for some crisis to appear, repeat.

Absent some jolt to get oil efficiency up, the market will simply wait. When there is no obvious alternative growth engine, then a crisis will slowly rear up during the wait period. Eventually the market may as well fix the price of oil and bet on the next crisis, skipping the intermediate step.

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