Thursday, July 15, 2010

Economic Cycles

Yield Curve over Time

I see them.  Isn't there a cycle with a 30 year time constant?  I say these cycles are physical transit times of real goods over the US geo-economy,. that actual asymmetrical tree of distributions  mostly over US territory. Or can be modeled like that, a finite semi-directed, minimum spanning tree.
Aside from the model, what is the interpretation? My interpretation is that the longest time constant is the time for central US government to exhaust inventory in pursuit of bail outs. The piling on is expected in asymmetric graphs.

The price we pay for bailouts is productivity improvements, no one likes them.  But, central government got us here, and central government is going to pay the price of productivity improvements.

Technology to the rescue.  We will have an abundant flow of new, cheap productivity technology for 50 years.

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