Sunday, July 18, 2010

John Taylor at Stanford cannot find a stimulus effect

He has some graphs here.  Take a look, but here is a key summary:.

The two charts show the percentage contribution of investment and government purchases to real GDP growth in the first quarter and in the preceding quarters since 2007. The charts clearly indicate that the changes in real GDP growth have been mostly due to changes in investment and little to changes in government purchases

He compares government spending and investment spending and matches those spending trends against GDP growth trend. That is a good technique, and government spending definitely comes out with multipliers less than one.

So much for the idea of more stimulus, unless we get a stimulus that actually targets the constraint.

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