Friday, August 27, 2010

Remember when everyone was supposed to bet higher short term rates?

Dec 31,2009.  Look at the Universal Economic Calculator. see how steep the curve was on that day? (You need to move the cursor back to that date).  Look at the curve today, much flatter.  That was a Kocherlakota Deflation, we should name the law after him!

What mechanism did the economy use to deflate the long end?  We used artificially short term rates accompanied by a Fiscal Stimulus with multipliers much less than one.  Policy makers had the math wrong, their math hit a zero which did not exist.  They keep the math wrong specifically so they can support the other lie about fiscal multipliers then artificially pump government debt.  Politics trumps Science in Economics.

Another way to say it is that Extend and Pretend is deflationary. Another name is Crowding Out.

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