How should Ben and the Crew bet?
Looking at the Hamilton/Wu paper, I would bet the two year yield up by .05 in six months. Then start borrowing one year money with increasing interest rates. If I beat the market, then I might bet the two year yield up another .o3.
If I bet too little, then reverse bets. For example, if the market anticipates you and jumps up the two year yield, then buy some one year bills and lock in rates. (Didn't the Hamilton/Wu paper imply a large two to one year coefficient?) The market and the Crew will soon have one to two year ratios at maximum entropy most of the time, a very good monetary standard.
It is Nyquist that splits the uncertainty. We all bet on speculative events within the next two years, but can only make one year contracts.
If the Banking Crew trades well and has followers, then look at the six month note, see if you might get traction there.
If you lose your shirt in the whole deal, then simply call yourselves Kenyesian.
An improvement on the scheme allows regional reserve president independent trading.
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