Tuesday, September 7, 2010

The Curve shape looks a lot like early 2003

Wasn't that the "too low for too long" and didn't the Fed play catch up on NGDP expansion until the crash?

If you buy the argument that the curve is a compact representation of future NGDP, then one has to set aside inflation and unemployment, the dual mandates and look instead to any observable low hanging fruit in the curve.  The low hanging fruit is obviously the "too low for too long"  fruit, in the short end.  It is becoming noticeable.

In Apr,2010 the curve was even steeper, shaped a lot like Jan 2004, when the Fed started the chase upward.  Oil imports are back to their mid 2003 level and price seems to be holding, just barely, to its range of $75-80.

The recent collapse comes from the natural  downturn that results when  multipliers are less than one and a massive stimulus is passing through.  Once the stalemated Congress shuts down the stimulus spigot, the economy is likely to show substantial NGDP growth.

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