Friday, January 21, 2011

Channel effects in house pricing behavior

Transaction costs are high, so the housing channel has high noise and lower capacity than other markets. To fill the channel to maximum entropy, the housing market organizes into a simpler structure, large neighborhoods are built less frequently then say recreational vehicles.  The channel operates with higher quantization noise but fits better into the smaller channel capacity.

So when we compare the housing market to the recreational vehicle market it appears demand is  liquid unmatched to supply in housing.  But as Kling points out, prices may be rising, but the next chunk of supply comes in huge quants so the lower dimensionality of the channel  just means slower adaption times.

We can see that in the spiraling effect in equilibriation, some outlying communities have already given up the housing market while others may just be finishing up a huge development.

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