Thursday, January 20, 2011

Theil on the future

There’ve been a whole series of these booms or bubbles in the last few decades, and I think it’s a very complicated question why there have been so many and why things have been so far off from equilibrium. There’s something about the U.S. in the last several decades where people had great expectations about the future that didn’t quite come true. Every form of credit involves a claim on the future: I’ll pay you a dollar on Tuesday for a hamburger today; I’ll buy this house, and I’ll pay off the mortgage over 30 years; and so you lend me money based off expectations on the future. A credit crisis happens when the future turns out not to be as good as expected.
HT Kling

Gee, a little careful reading and you might find out that the technology has only been passing information about things, not the things themselves. Ever think that might put us under potential growth? If you didn't get that part right then maybe you should be careful about the new institute.

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