Thursday, February 24, 2011

California flat on its back

California economy, 4% growth, cumulative growth since the recession.
"Our Index's November reading reinforced the unimpressive pattern of recovery in California over the course of 2010," said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "The state's recovery in 2010 has been uneven and inconsistent across sectors, creating choppiness in our Index. Looking ahead, California should make modest gains in 2011 against a background of a gradually accelerating national economy."
"Our Index's November reading reinforced the unimpressive pattern of recovery in California over the course of 2010," said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "The state's recovery in 2010 has been uneven and inconsistent across sectors, creating choppiness in our Index. Looking ahead, California should make modest gains in 2011 against a background of a gradually accelerating national economy."
The economic index is pegged to 2008, and is a three month average. Here is the unemployment rate:


Gee, I wonder what Obama will say to a state expected cover 13% of the federal debt service, growing to an additional $300 billion by 2016. California, not growing at all, is expected to come up with another $13 plus the 25% premium, or $18 billion per year in federal taxes when our own budget is short by $25 billion this year. Even if California could borrow or Laser Prints that money, it still does not cover the fact that Obama wants the additional $18 billion in federal debt debt service. We are likely to grow at this rate, 1.5% per year for a number of years with our increasing pension crisis coming due, mainly in the cities where no one sees the problem.

Where is Tim going to find foreign investors willing to loan money when the largest state is unable to cover debt service. Somebody, likely the Keynesians, doesn't follow the trail down from the top to the bottom.  With California on its back, then Nevada is in dire straights, and they pay a 30% premium price for federal borrowing.

The politicians responsible for this mess?  Jerry brown the younger and Gray Davis, and Pete Wilson; with special mention for Karen Bass and incompetent County Supervisers in the Central Valley.  Special mention to Boxer and Fenstein for bringing home a huge debt service from DC.

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