Friday, February 25, 2011

Economists still don't get forecasting right

"We had every reason to believe the U.S. economy will do extremely well this year," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist for the Economic Outlook Group. "Now we have to go back to the drawing boards."
Wa Post

No, you don't have to go back to the drawing board, all you have to do is follow Mish.

Or you could follow M1V, which has never stopped droping since the crash. The Problem Mr. Baumohl has is that he has been hired to lie, to say things about which he has no knowledge.

The same article says local budget cuts in government hurt the economy, failing to point out the central government borrowing has stuck the three major funding states with a $200 billion dollar debt service costs, due in four year. The $3 trillion that Krygman, DeLong, and Thoma decided should be borrowed by Obama are paid for by Illinois, New York, and California, three states who have had severe budget problems since before the crash. How are these states going to cover the DC borrowing costs? By cutting the local government work force.

The Post fails to point out that we had severe oil problems in July, 2008, the exact date of the crash, but the Obama government never once considered that the oil shortage caused the crash in the first place. Nor evidently did Mr. Baumol figure out that we crased on the day oil peaked at $140.

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