Sunday, February 27, 2011

I call it the Canadian Interpretation

 The finding that inflation is not forecastable over the Great Moderation period is consistent with the predictions of the DSGE model given the strong monetary policy rule estimated for this period. Specifically, since under this rule the policymaker will alter the interest rate to counter forecastable deviations of inflation from the target, the rule will eliminate forecastable movements in inflation and leave only unforecastable shocks to drive fluctuations.  Say Edge and Gurkaynak
In this study they find they central banks set interest rates by correcting their past errors. I call it the Canadian Interpretation because Nick Rowe mentioned is as part of his New Keynesian model. This is comparable to the Copehnagen interpretation of quantum physics.

What does it mean?
As my hords of readers should readily tell us, it means that the bankers yield curve are the variances in a Fibonacci sequence that matches the channel bandwidth to the signal to noise ratio of the bankers involved. It is the basis of the information theory, and implies that minimal redundancy is the norm to use. As we all know by now, I have said for three years the economy is based on a fixed uncertainty constant determined biologically.

I also implies that DSGE models are only valid for a short term look ahead and that heteroskedacity is not an artifact but a fundamental process of adjustment.   I think this validates the Levine model and the Hidalgo-Hausmann model, ultimately.  It certainly validates my model, and the trader's model of Fibonacci matching (Elliot Waves). It also should validate the Geoffrey West study of cities. It validates the Snap Back theorem, Schumpeter Creative Destruction. But more importantly, it tells us that information revolutions cause major disruptions because we are forced to requantize. It likely validates the idea of Fibonacci counters in our brains.

I think implies that we should be moving faster toward automated transportation, because we will quantize the Roadbots and adapt to them very fast. And, don't forget the theory of minimal government, which implies progressve tax  rates on central gvernment, and redistricting of state boundaries.

Welcome aboard!

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