Saturday, March 26, 2011

It never was housing

As Karl Smith points out in his post:
A point I want to keep emphasizing is that while the rapid increase in housing construction during the 2000s was not unprecedented, the collapse in home construction is.
A the end of the post he gets a problem:
ome people die each year and some homes are torn down or condemned each year. Unless those ratios are changing rapidly then a current levels the number of persons per home will converge towards more than double its long run average.
In channel terms, M1 Velocity is crashing, hence the rank order of the economy is reducing and we get larger households with less frequent but larger purchases of goods. Indications of a reduced rank production channel.

Why is this happening? You pick the bogeyman, but it was not caused by the housing boom.

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