Sunday, April 24, 2011

Energy and the consumer

Of the six US recessions since 1970, all but the "9-11 year 2001 recession" have been linked to—of not triggered by—energy prices that crossed the 6 percent of personal consumption expenditures, he said. (During the shallow 2001 recession, energy prices had risen to about 5 percent of spending, which is higher than the long-term 4 percent share.)
Craig Johnson channels Jim Hamilton via Christina Berk

What should we make of this?

Go back and look at the article. Craig Johnson is from Customer Growth Partners, where they follow consumer constraints.  All the recessions since the post 1970s have been preceded by oil shortages. All the great depressions in the USA have been caused by fundamental change to transportation.

So what about financial crisis?  Financial crisis are what happens when bankers get hysterical about defaulting the bond holders.   Bondholders hire economists to justify government bailouts, hence the diagnosis for these 'Restructurings' are skewed toward finance.

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