Thursday, April 21, 2011

This sound like the best outcome

At least, it makes perfect sense unless you, like me, had spent the previous few days talking to economists, investors and economic policymakers about what could happen if we start playing games with the debt ceiling. Their answers were across-the-board apocalyptic. If the U.S. government is so incapable of solving its political problems that it can’t come to an agreement on the debt ceiling, they said, that’s basically the end of the United States as the world’s reserve currency. We won’t be considered safe enough to serve as the investment of last resort. We would lose the most important advantage our economy has in the global financial system — and we’d probably lose it forever. Skyrocketing interest rates would slow our economy and, in real terms, make it even harder to pay back our debt, which would in turn send interest rates going even higher. It’s an economic death spiral we associate with third-world countries, not with the United States.

This is Ezra bitching because Ms Bachmann wants to stop federal debt accumulation today. Ezra gets hysterical, naturally, but Ezra is not the citizen of a median American congessinal district that loses 25% of federal tax dollar to Congressional programs. When Ms Bachmann needs a prticular bridge in her district, and suggests better uses for her constituents tax dollar, the Keynesians go hysterical nuts that we might threaten our socialist banking network.

Here is a worse fear for Ms Bachmans's district citizens. You people work hard, pay high energy fees in a cold climate and still fund congressional programs, both entitlments and Wars by Connecticut. If the federal government is doing the belly up, you will pay, and the longer you wait to restructure federal government, the greater the cost inflicted upon your district. Listen to Ms Bachmann.  For example here is Simon Johnsom commenting on the crisis:
In other words, the financial crisis will end up causing government debt to increase by more than 50 percentage points of G.D.P. over a decade. This is the major fiscal crisis of today and the likely one tomorrow. (I wrote more on this in a column this week for Bloomberg.)NYT Op Ed

That is, the middle class in Ms Bachmann's district pays for both the financial bailout plus the 25% they lose on the federal tax game. Michael Pettis is the go to expert on defaults, he will tell you the middle class pays for default. The Keynesians will say that we can avoid default, for a while, but they just pile on the cost of default more then necessary.

If you are still not sure look at the chrt presented by Niklas Blanchard:
 Median income vs Congressional spending

The voters in Ms Bachmann's district are close to the median Mr Bachmann still has the best plan, bite the bullet now.

3 comments:

Unknown said...

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Unknown said...

This article is very nice.
----------------
benjamin

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SlipOn said...
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