Saturday, June 25, 2011

The baseline algae oil economics

Baseline production: 15,000/365 = 50 gal/(acre*day).

Biodiesel enough for 50 small cars to drive to and from work.
50 million cars needs a million acres or we need
1,000,000/640 ~ 1500 square miles, a 40 mile by 40 mile lake of algae bags.


The Aquafarm economics

$100,000 per acre fixed investment generates 15,000 gal at $1.50/gallon, sales flow.  So debt service costs less than 25% of revenue, per acre.  There are fixed costs, like a service barge, small boats, wearable parts, and some nutrient and seed purchases.

Yield per acre should be higher where there is a steady nutrient source. Discovery and process improvement should increase yields. The range of possible biofuel products increases demand.

This entire industry will be made possible with major industrial interest in manufacturing algae growing plastic bags for a brand new $150 billion market over ten years.

I will start hunting for companies having expertise in durable, transparent plastic sheeting.

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