Friday, September 23, 2011

Fuel prices and channel theory

We start again with the basic equilibrium, a minimized distribution network will deliver maximum entropp flow under small shock. In short, is adjusts inventory in the minimum number of exchanges.

In transportation, a shock is seen as long lines at the pump.  The theory implies the buyer/seller arrangent is governed by queue management, keep the line length at 1.5   Under minimum net configuration, the fuel buyer looks at queue only, how many lined up at the pump.  Waiting times are more important than price

When fuel shortage hit, the queues jump for days, and schedules everywhere are so fouled that the cost is much greater than the cost of a gas hike.  After a queue mash up, buyers and seller seek a greater variety of prices over time for their finite fuel purchases.

The regime shift, as Hamilton calls it, is a change in the buyer/seller arrangement.  The seller looks at price first. He looks for high but reasonable, then he looks at queue. By maximizing mutual entropy between the fuel budget and the queue length, here results an optimum match between the finite set of buyer fuel needs and the set of localized gas distributed.  The net maintains maximal disorder, transaction are maximally encoded.

The result should show up in data comaring unit volume fuel purchases and fuel prices over time.  After the Hamitonian shift, the mutual entroyp measure between the two should show fewer unattended mismatches in the sequence.  Price and queue length at the finite set of distribution price are back in harmony.  The result will be greater fuel efficiency, and we often see a short term burst in fuel usage as it become allocated more efficiently with price signals.

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