Cal news today

Mainly trying to get California data as I think the state has contracted. Mainly two things, the tech earning are down, the current tech bubble seems to be over. The pension monster is hitting LA sooner than we expected, and we have three tax hikes to worry, state, fed, and a global warming fee, courtesy of Jerry Brown. I will try to get early data and make a prediction before the taxes really hit us. The LAO office in California is saying things look rosy, but they ignore agglomoration effe3cts as in:

Uncertainty Surrounding Federal Fiscal Policy. There is great uncertainty surrounding the federal “fiscal cliff,” the combination of tax increases and spending cuts set to take place under current federal law in 2013. These policies, if left unchanged, would have a significant effect on the economy and could result in economic conditions differing materially from our forecast. As discussed in Chapter 2, our forecast makes a number of assumptions regarding the federal fiscal cliff and its effect on the California economy. In general, we assume that federal policy makers take actions to avoid virtually all major near–term effects of the fiscal cliff. LAO

In other words, ignore the LAO report. Wages in California will re-agglomerate to avoid the sweet spot for double taxation, and I think this causes a contraction. If we get a bit of contraction then the LA bankruptcy moves up two years, happening in 2013. So, a bunch of stuff needs to be resolved.

Also, I noticed the unemployment rate in Fresno has risen a point, seasonally adjusted,  compared to a year ago.