Saturday, August 17, 2013

Says Law is back!

Say:
     In short, Say’s Law is this:  The supply (sale) of X creates the demand for (purchase of) Y.
In other words, specialization of production. From the article by jpatton:
Say has a point. According to business-cycle statistics, when a downturn starts, production is the first to decline, ahead of consumption. And when the economy begins to recover, it’s because production starts up, followed by consumption. Economic growth begins with an increase in productivity, new products, and new markets. Hence, production spending is always ahead of consumption spending.
Gee, I didn't know that I had used Say's Law when I noticed that a production collapse, not a consumption collapse caused the crash. But the data is clear when one examines the consumer price index and the producer price index. The two behaviors clearly indicate a rapid, and large series of exits of producers as the PPI suddenly collapsed. So, very interesting after all, this crash proved Say and disproved Keynes. Even the GD is explainable as a shortage, a shortage of roads, to be exact.

No comments: