Thursday, September 26, 2013

Kocherlakota sees no bubble

Mr. Kocherlakota is a non voting central bank board member. Kocherlakota speaks:

First, I will show you data that depict the painfully slow pace of recovery in the U.S. labor market. Second, I will show you data that demonstrate that there is considerable monetary policy capacity with which to address this problem.

Now, the word is that Mr. K has not explained exactly how the central banker can reduce unemployment. Some pundits thought that odd, proposing a policy he has no clue about.

The closest connection between employment and Fed actions  is Roger Farmer who linked the stock market to employment, showing a clear relationship over 70 years. I did not look at Roger's data yet, but it seems plausible, and further we know that the current central banker policy relies heavily on stock market asset values rising.

Well, Mr. K, you have to get another 1% reduction in unemployment rate by boosting those blue and red lines.   Then what? Do those blue and red lines stay where they are? No, they are going to collapse if the history over the last 15 years means anything.  Tell us more Mr. K, tell us how you avoid the collapse.

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