Wednesday, September 11, 2013

The  IMF says we had a multiplier greater than one in 1988 and 2007. I look in their list of banking crisis sample in which central government supposedly helped. They listed only two in the USA.

What banking crisis in 1988? They must be talking about 1992 recession. I see rising deficits all the way from prior to the recession until the post recession. Nothing there. I must have stumbled on a counterfactual realized.  The multiplier was working so well in 1988 that we skipped a recession. But if so, then the deficit stimulus must have just moved the shoulda been 1988 recession into 1992.

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