That is really the topic of a Political Calculations chart which estimates near term growth. They place great weight on the New Years Tax hike on near term low growth.
My claim is that a one time accounting change reset whatever tax costs occurred, and the tax consequences are priced in. So my claim is Ricardian in that I think a portfolio adjustment happened causing a one time downward spike, and we increasingly grew after.
They place greater weight on the cuts in G than I, as I had heard only 1% of the national fires were from sequester. Plus multipliers being less than one, I would make sequester a positive.
Because I discount the tax cost, I discount the QE effect. Deficit to GDP was reduced by 3 points, as taxes rose, that is a 30% reduction in new bond sales. That likely had greater effect than QE.
I also think the tax re-alignment slightly shrunk the Sacramento Blackhole.
I predict that the national accounts will surprise upward by half a point (YoY), when we ever compute them.
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