Thursday, October 24, 2013

Obamacare birth spasms

Obamacare still gets a Break in its Adjustment period:

I would say any portfolio change in central government gets a period of adjustment when we expect volatility. Plans get out of sequence because no trend has been established. Fewer people involved means absolute queuing theory applies at the moment of birth.  Private insurers are adjusting to the law sooner than the system can take new customers in. Sounds serious, but it is still adjustment time; even a libertarian move gets the same allowance.

When is the free period over for Obamacare? We need to see light sometime in March, 2014. Because beyond that, the Obamacare adjustments get built into trend, we start paying a longer term cost as efficiency gains are discounted. It becomes a known multiplier less than one.

From the liberal point of view.

 What can the liberals do to make Obamacare work? Avoid all the known government clusterfucks, like the large state. small state mismatch. Obamacare partially avoided the state mismatch problem with the exchange idea, good idea. Obamacare made the mismatch problem a bit worse with the medicaid changes, bad idea. Get it? Obamacare wants to avoid influencing the agglomeration function more than is its due. 

Now Obamacare has breathing room, and is not under existential threat. So, slow it down, and learn the gain coefficients slowly, as not to cause queuing. Exchange markets might be a winning  idea here, don't screw it up with dis-incentives.

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