Friday, October 18, 2013

Why did we have a severe market correction in 1987

Take a look at 1987, see the downward shift. Look at the subsequent path of the market. The 1987 price is not compatible with the post correction path. The question is, why was exponential growth too steep in the market in 1987? Then again in 1989. By 1995, no one cared, let it go exponential, concave up even. Why? Because debt roll over delays induce reinforcing cycle behavior. Notice, in the end we just decided to cycle the market every eight years.

Why are we cycling the market every eight years? We have the growing roll over problem with accumulating debt. But we own the fiat banker. So the fiat holds the rates synchronous to our roll over period, self reinforcing and we oscillate. Talk to a amateur radio person.

The corrections are sharp because the market concentration is highest at the unsustainable moment.  Big brokers grow the portfolio ahead of the market on the way up, and concentrate the market. But they have to manage the corrections.  When it is time to correct, why not just short the market and start talking about 1929, works every time.

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