Sunday, December 8, 2013

Steve Williamson's meets Moon Person

Steve meets a moonperson who wants to know, among other things, why is QE different than lowering the short end?

Volcker and Bernanke 

The other day I met an intelligent person from the Moon. Apparently this Moon Person (MP) knows nothing about what goes on here on earth, with the exception of: (i) Paul Volcker was the Fed Chair from August 1979 until August 1987; (ii) The Fed controls the nominal federal funds rate; (iii) Paul Volcker is well known for bringing down the rate of inflation in the United States.

Volker did not do QE, but he tried lowering and raising the short term interest rate. Bernanke did a bit of both.

Long story short. 
First case, shortening the short end of the treasury curve, all things being reversible, means the characteristic curve is steeper to the right. So that means semi-stable movement upward in events, until you reach an uncertain future. The fiat is measuring near term momentum with longer term uncertainty.
Second case, QE, on the other hand, tries to flatten the curve. That is a demand for a fully stable outcome, so losses get precomputed. The deflation occurs when agents cannot be profitable under the shallow slope to the right, the fiat adjusts to their posted losses.

Why the growth?
 Who is posting the losses? Government, that is the thing shrinking. We get growth and deflation because government is inefficient and shrinking.

No comments: