Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Things to watch in 2014

Mexican oil deregulation:
The bill ending the state monopoly was approved by the Mexican Congress Dec. 12. Before becoming law, the proposal must be ratified by state assemblies, most of which are controlled by proponents of the reform. Oil companies will be offered production-sharing contracts, or licenses where they get ownership of the pumped oil and authority to book crude reserves for accounting purposes. The contracts will be overseen by government regulators. 
Return of the Tea Party:
Last week Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told Congress that they project the debt ceiling to be breached in the weeks after February 7th, and that will not negotiate.
Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew is telling Congress that he will have only a few weeks after Feb. 7 to avoid an unprecedented default on the nation’s debt. He says Congress should act quickly next year to raise the borrowing limit.
As part of the agreement that ended the 16-day partial government shutdown in October, Congress suspended the debt limit until Feb. 7.
Splintering of the medical industry:
As part of that control, the federal government is setting prices either directly (for Medicare and Medicaid) or indirectly (for exchange plans). Medicare reimbursement rates are much lower than posted prices at most health services providers, generally only about 40 percent of the full posted price. (Most private insurance companies also pay less than the full posted price.) Medicaid reimbursements vary considerably relative to Medicare, both by services and by state, but on average Medicaid paid 34 percent less than Medicare.
And this chart:
How long can the Fed holds rates at zero?

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