Friday, January 24, 2014

Market recap

I look at a few things. Stock indices down 2%, ten year at 2.74%. But oil, simply keeping its nominal 93-98 dollar range. Arnold Kling points out that companies listed on the exchange gain about half their income from emerging markets, and these economies are in some trouble from relying on foreign credit. Also, about 25% of that stock is held by households. Alarming? No, not yet. The corporations and brokers have, supposedly, been aware of a correction. If you believe in a 10% correction, then you are halfway there, and relax.

I am sanguine if the market corrects smoothly over a 30% range, say over a three month period.  That would be great news and certainly possible, and still probable, in my opinion. After that we want the folks in DC to avoid doing any more harm with more debt.

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