Saturday, February 8, 2014

Mark Perry has a great map

He  matched state gdp to other nations so we can see the relative size. We have also seen that Florida and California have a greater effect on unemployment than any other  grouping of states.  If we believe that government size is a component in uncovered changes, then we might be seeing an effect.  Large governments more inefficient relative to their private sectors. So what is it? Bad agglomeration by the private sector or the public sector? Mark hints at the answer when he shows the economy of California is more efficient than the similar sized economy of Italy. What went nearly bankrupt during the crash? State government of California. California likely has a private sector much more efficient then its government as compared to Connecticut. More drill down of the data is needed, but as a Californian I have a very strong hunch.
 Let's look at California inflation compared to the national average. Inflation is uncovered losses passed down to the consumer. The two seem basically in tune, and relatively high. This is evidence that California is about as efficient as the aggregate economy. Efficiency in the sense that the economy uncovers new losses as well as anyone, except to the period in the later mid 90s.   California was behind in pricing efficiency and had to make up the difference later, largely because of government screwing with the energy markets. Data still mixed.

But here is a key. The government channel had the greatest deficit swings, peaking at 10% of GDP, at the federal level.  That is more government inefficiency than any other sector and Florida and California likely the largest chunk in the government chain.

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