Thursday, February 6, 2014

Reagan, Volker and the bzonker government of the 80s

Volker wasn't chasing inflation. The real economy was kinked, likely because of the government channel becoming unsustainable. Volker was helping the economy to push CPI up to rebalance. Remember the Reagan deficits, these are sudden changes in government accuracy, down.

Today, if the Fed wanted to help the economy correct government inaccuracy, it is shackled by the advance in technology in the shadow banking system.  A huge number of the population does not have access to efficient demand deposits, and they cannot get paid the inflation rate for short term reserves, mainly because of so many more poor who carry liquidity in the form of food stamps, and govrnment transfers, hence not accessible to the fiat bankers. The Fed needs to directly pay the short term rates on all short term reserves by electronic exchange. Set the limit at 15% of the poverty line, then pay the inflation rate on that, and set the short term rate to inflation. If the CPI continues to rise and short term liquidity earns that rate, then the economy is rebalancing, let the curve kink.

Otherwise, the Fed should invest along the curve to break even, and just print itself 10 billion a year for costs. If five rate  year rates drop, the fed buy a few bonds, help the market lower yields.

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