Sunday, July 20, 2014

Flat or curved data fitting?

Dave Beckworth shows us the real interest rate in the black line. Is that line curving down since 1981?

He seems to be drawing his flat line through the mid point of the interest rate cycles, starting in 1981, but it fails to follow that path. Why not include 1961 to 1981? Because US government debt began increasing substantially in 1980. And I use 1980 as the point at which sun belt migration began effecting economic dynamics, but I could be wrong. But the curve I would put in this graph is concave down. But yearly real rates have gone below zero.

How does this economy work then?  Dunno!

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