Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Noah Smith gets it wrong on stagflation

Noah Smith: The first was the stagflation of the 1970s.  Keynesian SEMs predicted that when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, it should have given the economy a boost; instead, all it did was create useless, harmful inflation.

On the chart, effective federal funds goes up, CPI (inflation) goes up.  And visa versa. The one exception is the recession of 1974.

The curious thing is that I always catch these errors, everytime, and point them out on the site where the error is made, then post the fraud on this site.  Yet some economists keep on telling fabrications, knowing they will be caught.

What is really happening here?

Well Milt Friedman mostly got it right, finally. But the cause is likely something simple, when the Fed raises rates, it loses income and is faced with laying off staff.  That is a speculation, but probably close to the truth. But the coefficients either are lagged, and the economists assumes cycles (John Taylor), or the economists are simply frauds. Brad Delong has finally figured out that economists do not have a valid pricing model. Solution? Hand the problem to the matematicians and get it right.

I had to get up off the couch.

Whenever I see this,I  think, how could an actual, supposedly educated economists get the sign backwards.  That is impossible! So I have to get up off the couch, look closely, double check all the up and downs, do I have the colors right, I even diagram the sentence the economists wrote. I do this twice! I wonder, how can sanity even prevail in economics school, how many  undergraduates are constantly having to check, "up is up; down is down;, and so on. How do they get through it?

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