Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Who woulda thunk it?

ChicagoBusiness: Dr. John Jay Shannon was promoted to CEO at Cook County Health and Hospitals System June 27, and he already has been told to find $67 million in savings in four months.
The health system, one of the largest public hospital networks in the country, is responsible for much of a projected $86 million shortfall in Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle's year-end budget figures.
Dr. Shannon says the deficit likely will be less than current projections. But he also says it is unlikely to be erased completely in just a few months.
Most of the shortfall is due to the growing pains associated with CountyCare, the county's innovative managed care program for Medicaid recipients. Many of the roughly 95,000 people enrolled have insurance for the first time, which means Cook County Health could get reimbursed rather than having to subsidize their treatment as charity care. But costs have climbed fast, as newly insured patients sought everything from checkups to pricey treatment for chronic ailments.
That is about 1,000 in unexpected costs (above the plan)  per new patient (65,000), per year.

Total medicaid costs in the US budget, 415 billion, for about 80 million. That is expected to grow to 91 million by 2023, (Kaiser), or 450 billion in costs, inflation adjusted. So count recessions. We have the current Obama recession starting yesterday which knocks off 1/2 point of growth, and the Hillary recession in 2022 which knocks off 1/2 point of growth.  The answer is that this Medicaid growth cannot be done, impossible, does not compute.

How about those part time jobs?

Atlanta Fed: Weak business conditions and the increase in the relative cost of full-time employees have been about equally important drivers of the increase in the use of part-time employees thus far. Thinking about the future, firms mostly cite an expected rise in the relative cost of full-time workers as the reason for shifting toward more part-time employees. So while there are some clear structural forces at work, a large amount of uncertainty around the future cost of health care and the future pace of economic growth also exists. The extent to which these factors will ultimately affect the share working part-time remains to be seen.

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