Saturday, September 20, 2014

What does Brad DeLong call lack of demand?

Here I have two lines, the blue is inflation expectations, the red is the ten year Treasury rate.  Inflation expectations (Ten year minus inflation indexed ten year) is what the market expects inflation to be, and it has gotten lower.  Expected inflation lower along with the 1.7% inflation rate, down from 2%. But the red line is the ten year Treasury going up, (see that jump at the end).  Why is the Ten year DC borrowing costs going up when we have disinflation?

Brad calls it lack of demand, but clearly there is a demand for Congress to pay higher rates.  This is our UC Professor making up stories to protect the Keynesian idea.  We have lower growth now because DC is crowding out the private sector, DC is having a debt crisis and causing a recession.

Look here, 30 year mortgage rates jumping up, because of the ten year yeild jumping up.  Read the horseshit  from Frank Nothaft.  He claims the Fed did it. BS, government debt is due, Obamacare is due and all these bills have piled up causing DC to increase borrowings. It hasn't shown up yet because it is done quarterly. Recession time is drawing near.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.23% in the week that ended Sept. 18, hitting the highest rate since early May, in a large jump from the prior week's reading of 4.12%, according to a Thursday report from federally controlled mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac FMCC, -3.05% "Fixed-rate mortgage rates rose this week following the increase in 10-year Treasury yields being partially fueled by market speculation the Federal Reserve might change its interest rate guidance," said Frank Nothaft
Here is the almost honest CBO:
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday raised its projection for this year’s federal deficit to $506 billion. The budget office’s last report in April had projected the deficit for fiscal 2014 would top out at $492 billion on Sept. 30.

That would be an understatment as the CBO is reading unreliable corporate taxes.
But the CBO said it is increasing the deficit figure now, in part, because receipts from corporate income taxes are turning out to be $37 billion less than expected.
CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf told repoters it's difficult to assess what is causing the drop in corporate receipts.
“It’s hard to know what to make of that because we don’t have detailed data,” he said. “Companies have put off paying some of the taxes they owe in legal ways. … We think there’s more deferral for payments in the next year than we anticipated.”
Elmendorf added the corporate tax rate has been volatile in recent years, making receipts difficult to forecast. He said the expiration of tax provisions last year has allowed companies to defer their payments.
But more than that, the bond market is piling money to match next months debt demands, which have been well advertised.  It is not expectations, it is calculated debt demands rising and actual debt demands rising; all from DC.

 Here is debt to GDP, up a half point in the last six months.  That is what causes rates and interest payments to rise, that is called crowding out.

But rates and debt are not quite aligned you say? Not quite, but this is a cartel, there are only about 20 CEOs who run the cartel. They manage rates in the near term to maximize income for their clients.

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