Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Hilsenrath has brilliant timing

HILSENRATH’S TAKE: COMMODITY PRICES DROP GIVES FED ADDITIONAL BREATHING ROOM 
Federal Reserve officials have an additional reason to be patient about raising short-term interest rates: Downward pressure on commodities prices.
Nymex crude oil futures prices dropped $3.90 per barrel Tuesday to $81.84, the lowest level since June 2012. Crude is down 19% from a year earlier. Nymex RBOB gasoline futures, at $2.1802, are at their lowest level since November 2010 and off 18% from a year ago. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, a broad measure of commodities prices, is down 4.7% from a year earlier.

Of course the driller stocks are crushed by 20%, ready to start lay offs. The ten year almost breached 2%.  So, yes the pressure is off to raise rates, though it was never clear what that meant since the interest on reserves is the key rate and that is about three times the one year Treasury market rate.  In fact, the Fed right now is scrambling to find a way back to QE.

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