Monday, October 6, 2014

In economics its transaction rate

The red and blue lines indicate how often money turns over in a specified period. Look at the red line which includes checking and short term accounts.  This is the nominal middle class and how often they make purchases.

The rate of transactions is below any level ever recorded by the Fed. One would think economists would be looking at that value, any many are, I am sure.  But for Keynesians its not even in their equation yet!  Yet they claim to  know how the economy works.  Absent any transactions, the economy simply breaks up, it can no longer keep pricing accurate enough to engage in investment.

 Look at producer prices and consumer prices.  Producers are in blue, consumer in red. Producer price is a difficult statistic because the supply chain is long while the consumer prices are end points, so producer prices are both input and output. Producer prices crash during the recession, mainly folks stopped buying oil, especially the transportation sector.  Since the crash, producer prices have held steady while consumer prices kept on rising.

Retail input prices held steady while consumers pay more.  Somewhere in the value chain profits are rising. Where? Who knows.  But clearly consumers are shopping less and someone else making better gains, hence the drop in velocity.

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