Sunday, November 30, 2014

Keynesians saved us from the crash? Where is the proof.

Tell me which one of these caused us to start growth again.  The Red line is oil prices the green is stimulus spending.

Have any of the stimulus promoters shown a single study that can differentiate between plunging oil prices and stimulus spending?

All they have shows are lists of thing government spent, never a list of things not spent, or lists of thing spent because of plunging oil prices. Not a single study, the only thing they have to show is a willingness of some economists to sign onto unproven conjectures.  The entire claim of Keynesian spending is that they learned it some school somewhere.  Romer's cutnpaste statistics are pure fiction. All those studies do is select the chosen period, then zero out the correlations that do not agree with the desired priors.

The red line shows a pretty good correlation with the crash (oil prices spiked) and the recovery (oil prices plunged).  Then the next two years we see growth go up and down with oil prices.  Over half of the rise and fall in CPI was characterized as a change in oil prices since 2010. 

No comments: