Thursday, November 13, 2014

Mr. Kocherlakota has actually never seen the Fed raise rates

WSJ Blogs: In his formal remarks, Mr. Kocherlakota repeated his belief that a U.S. central bank rate increase next year would be a mistake. Inflation is unlikely to reach the Fed’s 2% target until 2018, and because of this outlook, “it would be inappropriate for the [Federal Open Market Committee] to raise the target range for the fed funds rate at any such meeting” occurring in 2015, he said.
I checked his career and checked the Fed history of raising rates.  The only time the Fed actually raised rates was Volcker who raised the reserve requirements.  Since then the only tool the Fed has used to raise rates was the target and the market.  It actually has no method to intervene since it has never had a deposit rate system. The Fed cannot raise rates above market rates, at least that is my understanding of sequential numbers.

Mr. Kocherlakota graduated from school after Volcker, and thus has never seen an actual interest rate hike by the Fed, so he has a sample set of zero elements. I doubt he even knows what will happen when the Fed raises the IOER.

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