Sunday, November 30, 2014

Scott Sumner vs Jim Hamilton vs queue length

Scott: Rising oil production is likely to lead to faster global growth. Falling oil production is likely to lead to slower global growth. That's because oil is an important input into the production process.

However falling oil prices have no implications for global growth---it merely redistributes global wealth.

Jim: The world is awash in oil, I’m hearing. The problem is, it’s fairly expensive oil.

Take for example Canada. The country has managed to increase its production of oil by a million barrels a day over the last decade. But almost all of that increase has come from oil sands. If you consider only conventional crude oil, Canadian production today would be a third of a million barrels a day lower than at its peak in 1973.
Scot says oil pricing allocates oil over space. Jim says it also allocates over time.

How are these two different? They are, both really queue length. The real determinant are the degrees of motion available to equalize queue lengths.

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