Monday, November 24, 2014

Should we fear a bout of inflation?

More than the 1.8% inflation rate we have suffered since the crash? Let's look at the numbers.

In actual Fed printing there is some 23% of GDP cash pumped into the economy.  Of that, about 9% is needed to support real growth with neutral prices.  The other 14% is accumulating in the accounts of wealthy individuals, large corporations and large Wall Street banks.

Next there is the additional 4T borrowed, not printed, by the politicians.  But the large Wall Street banks have been very careful to insure taxpayers pay market rates,  even rigging rates higher to cover future interest rate subsidies on the printed cash.

What about the previous 8T in debt run up by the Republican Communist Party?  The debt cartel likely insures the taxpayer is paying fair market value on those interest charges, some 12% of the federal budget.

So that leaves inflation in the hands of the wealthy individuals, large banks, and corporations who hold the 14% of printed NGDP,  the remainder of printed cash.  What is the likelihood they will freak and suddenly spend all that money on salaries? Not much.  I think there is little to fear from any prolonged bout of inflation for the next few years.

The fear is taxpayers who may simply tire of paying infinite interest costs for spending long since depreciated in the economy. A tax payer revolt would send Congress into a tizzy, and that may result in inflation.

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