Friday, December 5, 2014

Does this chart tell us anything about central banking?

I have the green line, QE purchases. That red line is the ten year yield, it dropped like a rock way before the Fed bought any QE. So, who lowered rates? Banks, dumping cash onto the ten year market.  The interest costs, as a percentage of the DC budget is the blue, but those scales are wrong, they must be divided by 40. But the hit on the budget dropped to about 8%, at the bottom.  That number is now about 11.5%.  It has been as high as 20% under Clinton and 23% under Reagan.

So, the safety of the huge budget and Congress was never in need of saving by the Central Bank.  The interest costs on the DC budget have bounds, from 15% to 8%.  The banks insure the government costs never exceeds its bounds.   The method is disinflation, and possibly deflation.

How close are we to hitting the band limits?  That blue line is jumping about 12%, and has small variance.  That thing is well controlled, except for the latest spike, a bipartison pre-election spiking of the expenses.

So, as a percent of the budget it has gotten smaller; so the ten year and  inflation rate dropped. All that is happening is that principal goes to neutral at equilibrium. What we have is a loop, taxes to interest to the economy, and back again. in fact, an eight  year loop as it looks. 
So in other words, unless DC runs a surplus, about 10% of the budget back there will always be pre-allocated. Taxpayers are stuck with a permanent tax equal to 10% of our federal taxes. That loop is a reduction in degrees of freedom, or Schramm-Loewner reduction in dimension.  The economy has thie permanent tax and its motion must avoid that tax.

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