Monday, December 1, 2014

Goldman Sachs vs the Republican Congress

The whole issue with central bankers is that the private banks are not interested in having Congress as the conduit for money injection.  Their main complaint is that Congressional actions are multipliers less than one.  So the debt cartel is very shrewd about raising rates on Congress when the urge to spend  arrives.

The private banks are correct, Congress has long ago lost any maneuvering room, being loaded with 17T of Republican debt.

So we have an interesting game. The private banks can manage the economy with a half to one point of inflation, even zero inflation if they work hard.  The excess reserves will run out in three years with 2.5% growth, which is about 1.5T and the banks will need a cushion above that.  So, we have in one corner the Republican deficit hounds, and in the other Obama and the banks.  The Fed is waiting the outcome.

I do not think Congress can operate when interest costs exceed 15% of the budget, and they are now 12%.   Politics play a role. If Obama holds fast on spending then he comes out of the presidency with one of the best economic records in post war period. That makes Hillary a good bet for president.

Goldman Sachs would be happy with another Clinton, they fear another Texas Republican. Hillary is a Yawker, just like them.

If I were the Republican voter, I would be looking for a small state Republican, preferably a governor, to run.

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