Wednesday, December 3, 2014

We payed more interest to the bond market then we got stimulus growth

At least by 2010 Q3, which is the first year of the stimulus. We see the red line, interest payments rise faster than real GDP. This is not what the stimulaters say should happen.  Their claim is that interest rates are low, government spending is cheap. Yet the cause of this rise in interest charges is simple, the ten year yield had popped back up to its normal trend by Q3 of 2009.

Lets look at the ten year yield on government debt.
Why, yes indeed, we see the ten year back up to normal trend before the stimulus really starts.  The ten year rate is what government pays, all the time, the bond cartel and the US Senate make sure of that.

What else did they tells us? QE was supposed to keep that rate low.  So we have QE, the stimulus and an oil price plunge, yet nothing stops the US Senate from paying the normal ten year rate on debt.

So we have yet another peice of bogus theory from the Keynesians, debt was never cheap. Interest costs back to trend before the stimulus and interest cost have been  trending higher than the growth rate ever since.

Look at the top chart, the spike in interest costs at the latest reading. This data is a year behind and there was a reduction in interest costs.  However, the ten year yield is back up to 2.3%, slightly under the growth rate. So you can bet your bottom dollar that Jack Lew will be spending time before the Senate Republicans explaining why Republican debt is the gift that keeps on giving.

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