Friday, December 5, 2014

What will Republican Big Spenders do?

Fed plan to raise rates:

The Fed’s new “optimal control” study, completed in late November, is akin to putting the whole economy through a flight simulator to estimate how much fuel it needs to ride through a storm. Using a model known as FRB/US, Fed staffers simulate a path for the central bank’s benchmark interest rate–the federal funds rate–that results in the quickest possible return to low unemployment and stable inflation around 2%.
The study finds the best time to start lifting the fed funds rate from near zero is right now, in the fourth quarter of 2014, followed by increases to 1.4% by the fourth quarter of 2015, 2.6% by the fourth quarter of 2016 and 3.5% by the end of 2017. Looking out past 2020, the simulations never result in short-term rates above 4%.

Who is going to raise rates? The US Treasury by selling debt at the short end of the curve and flattening the curve. So this is not a Fed rate hike, this is a coordinated plan by the debt cartel, the Fed and Obama.

What is the probability that a binging Republican Congress can manage the budget short term? The Republicans have mostly been deficit raising, inflation causing, grandiose, economy crashing Communists.  At least for the last 40 years.

This proposal is a test, the Fed wants to see how the Republican Communist Party will react.  Listen to what the Republicans say in the next few weeks. Here is a taste:
Reince Preibus has some harsh words for President Barack Obama when it comes to the federal debt. Days after the federal debt surpassed $18 trillion for the first time, the Republican National Committee chairman says no other president has failed worse than Obama, says he has “the worst record of any president when it comes to putting America deeper in debt,” according to The Hill. He also blasted the increase in debt as "immoral" and said the outcome in the midterm elections showed Americans are "tired of Democrats' free-spending ways."

So which party left the government with a 10% deficit?

 Lets go through the number, once again. 1976, Caarter takes over, deficit reduced by 2.5% of GDP.  1980 Reagan take over, then Bush the elder, and together  leave the deficit  worse by 2.5% of GDP.  Clinton takes over, leaves the Deficit better by a whopping 7%, and all time record since WW21, I think.  Then lil Bush takes over and leaves a deficit some 10% worse, the worst all time post war record.  Obama takes over and has the deficit better by 4%, and he is not done yet.

Some might claim that Bush left with a small deficit in 2009, Q1; but the budget that busted the bank was his, submitted in Oct 2008 for the year. It should have been law, and there was nothing Obama could do. 

Obama could have stopped  this:
Decreased tax revenue and high spending resulted in an unusually large budget deficit of about $1.4 trillion, well above the $407 billion projected in the FY 2009 budget.[3] A 2009 CBO report indicated that $245 billion, about half of the excess spending, was a result of the 2008 TARP bailouts. Spending increases and tax credits resulting from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 accounted for another 200 billion of the budget deficit.
So give Obama blame for about 3%, GDP of the deficit, the other 7% correctly belongs to Bush.  Still, the Republicans are worse in the debt category.

So, we have the all time worst debt mongering party, the Republican Communist Party.

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